Polyscan

Scoreboard

A public record of where Polymarket and Kalshi price the same real-world question differently -- and, market by market, whether that difference is a genuine disagreement or just two contracts that aren't quite the same bet.

As of 2026-09-16 12:29 UTC

Criteria intelligence

B KXFEDDECISION

These two markets look like the same bet. They aren't quite — here's the clause that explains it

Machine proposed tier A · human reviewer assigned tier B

B — Same intended FOMC outcome partition under normal 25bp increments, but not settlement-identical under all possible outcomes. Polymarket explicitly rounds non-standard rate changes to the next 25bp bracket and defines the rate as the upper bound of the federal-funds target range; Kalshi contains neither rule in the supplied criteria. Cancellation/postponement handling also differs. In addition, Kalshi C26/H26 primary rule text omits the ">" present in the market title, creating an internal rule/title inconsistency. Suitable for cross-venue comparison with caveat; not safe to represent as guaranteed identical-settlement arbitrage.

Accuracy record

Insufficient data — 1 verified series, need at least 200

We do not publish a venue accuracy percentage until there is enough reviewed history for it to mean anything. A number computed on one or two observations would be more misleading than no number at all.

Reviewed series