Tier A — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier B; this review assigned tier A instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review found no proven divergence between the two contracts. 1 wording ambiguity listed below as caveats.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “Accepting an ambassador from <country>” Polymarket: “Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify.”
Ambassador acceptance is unresolved wording, not a demonstrated opposite settlement. The finding uses the RECOG terms and criteria id 138929; its single stored version matches the 2026-10-19 live text, so the conclusion holds on the latest captured version.
Tier A — 1 unresolved wording difference
In each case one venue's text is determinate and the other's is unclear or silent. They are shown so nothing is hidden, and they are not counted as divergences.
Whether accepting an ambassador alone constitutes formal recognition
Example: KXRECOGSOMALI-29 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
:: During Trump's term
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, the market resolves to Yes.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.