Tier C — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Emergency-meeting requirement”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once” Polymarket: “any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board”
Kalshi covers any rate cut during its stated period. Polymarket limits the event to an emergency meeting, so a cut at a regular scheduled meeting can resolve Yes on Kalshi and No on Polymarket.
Tier C — 1 actionable divergence
Emergency-meeting requirement
Example: KXRATECUT-26DEC31 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Fed rate cut before 2027?
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.