Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier A; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Different resolution deadlines”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance” Polymarket: “between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET”
Both concern the next qualifying holder of the same office and candidate, but Kalshi's market runs to Jan 1, 2030, while Polymarket's deadline is Jan 19, 2029. A qualifying appointment in the intervening period can therefore produce different outcomes.
Tier B — 1 material divergence
Different resolution deadlines
Example: KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Adam Telle formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Brent Ingraham be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Brent Ingraham formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Brian Mast be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Brian Mast formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Charles Young III be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Charles Young III formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Derrick Anderson be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Derrick Anderson formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If W. Jordan Gillis formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Marc Andersen formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Michael Obadal formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
If Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?
Will Brent Ingraham be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Adam Telle be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Charles Young III be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Sean Parnell be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Brian Mast be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Michael Obadal be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Marc Andersen be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.