Tier C — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:03 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed two divergences: “Emergency subject: any national emergency versus election interference” and “Deadline: Kalshi Nov. 1 versus Polymarket Dec. 31”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “any executive action declaring a national emergency” Polymarket: “explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes”
Both confirmed findings use the PRESACTION terms and criteria id 156703; its single stored version matches the 2026-10-19 live text, so they hold for the selected Nov. 1 contract. The rules for the December-dated Kalshi sibling were not captured, so an exact date-aligned comparison remains unverified.
Tier C — 2 material divergences
Emergency subject: any national emergency versus election interference
Deadline: Kalshi Nov. 1 versus Polymarket Dec. 31
Example: KXNATLEMERGENCY-26AUG — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Trump declare a national emergency?
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Apr 1, 2027?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Dec 1, 2026?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Dec 29, 2026?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency before Dec 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Jan 1, 2027?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Nov 1, 2026?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Oct 1, 2026?
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trump declares election interference national emergency by July 17?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.