Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:04 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed two divergences: “Different cutoff dates” and “Announcement date versus actual departure date”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period” Polymarket: “An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date”
The Apr 1, 2027 Kalshi cutoff and Oct 31, 2026 Polymarket cutoff differ; a Feb 2027 departure yields Kalshi YES and Polymarket NO. An Oct 30 announcement effective after Apr 1 also yields Polymarket YES and Kalshi NO; the proposed suspension/leave edge remains unresolved wording.
Tier B — 2 material divergences, 1 unresolved wording difference
Different cutoff dates
Announcement date versus actual departure date
In each case one venue's text is determinate and the other's is unclear or silent. They are shown so nothing is hidden, and they are not counted as divergences.
Temporary leave or suspension
Example: KXLUTNICKOUT — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026?
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.