Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:03 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Commitment to open without a specific date”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “must be opened or have a specific date on which it will be opened” Polymarket: “regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe”
An official, unconditional commitment to open an embassy without a specific opening date can satisfy Polymarket’s clear-commitment language, while Kalshi requires an opening or a specific date.
Tier B — 1 material divergence
Commitment to open without a specific date
Version basis: EMBASSY terms captured 2026-10-19 and criteria ID 156771, the sole stored criteria version; stored and live text match, so the finding holds on the latest version.
Example: KXIRANEMBASSY-27 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Sep 1, 2026?
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2028?
If the United States has announced the opening of an embassy or consulate of the United States of America in Iran after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.