Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier C; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:04 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed three divergences: “Different deadlines”, “Any replacement name versus a name including Trump”, and “Signed executive action versus public announcement”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “any signed executive action renaming the Strait of Hormuz to any different name” Polymarket: “or any equivalent name which includes "Trump"”
Both concern an official US renaming of the strait, but Kalshi’s selected market ends October 1, while Polymarket runs through December 31. Their name and qualifying-action requirements can also produce different outcomes.
Tier B — 3 material divergences
Different deadlines
Any replacement name versus a name including Trump
Signed executive action versus public announcement
Example: KXHORMUZRENAME-26SEP — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz?
Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz?
If Donald Trump has taken any signed executive action renaming the Strait of Hormuz to any different name after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz?
If Donald Trump has taken any signed executive action renaming the Strait of Hormuz to any different name after Issuance and before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.