Tier A — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review found no proven divergence between the two contracts.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “majority of voters vote for independence” Polymarket: “a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence”
Both descriptions require a majority vote for independence before the end of 2026. The wording differs for referenda to join another country, but the text does not establish a scenario where that alone produces opposite outcomes.
Example: KXGREENIND-27 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Will Greenland vote for independence before 2027?
If Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.