Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier A; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
Rules version (Polyscan's check of its own stored rules; the review did not state one): the divergence holds on the two matched historical contracts but not on the latest representative market's rules (version 3881655, first seen 2026-10-15, blank secondary rules). The earlier representative version (202339, seen 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-14) carried 418 characters of secondary rules. Rulebook v1.29.
The review confirmed one divergence: “Law taking effect without presidential signature”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override” Polymarket: “become law without signature while Congress remains in session”
Tier B remains based on the historical matched strikes KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-JUL01 and KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY-26AUG01: their secondary rule requires presidential signature or veto override, while Polymarket also accepts law without signature during a session. BILL has no death/incapacity-specific clause; for undeterminable values its terms say “If an Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date,” while Rulebook v1.29 7.1 gives the committee “full discretion in resolving the Market Outcome Review Process” and 7.2 permits expiration/source changes, but Polymarket’s official-source and credible-reporting fallback yields no proven YES/NO split.
Tier B — 1 material divergence
Law taking effect without presidential signature
Example: KXFISAEXTEND-26MAY — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
When will FISA be reauthorized again?
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Aug 15, 2026?
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Sep 1, 2026?
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Dec 1, 2026
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jul 15, 2026
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Jul 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Oct 1, 2026?
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jan 1, 2027
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Apr 1, 2027
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Aug 1, 2026
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jul 1, 2026
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
FISA Section 702 reauthorized by…?
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may reauthorize the legislation for any duration. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the Library of Congress (congress.gov) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may reauthorize the legislation for any duration. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the Library of Congress (congress.gov) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.