Tier A — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review found no proven divergence between the two contracts. 1 wording ambiguity listed below as caveats.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “If Iran holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027” Polymarket: “if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026”
Both resolve YES for a presidential election held within the corresponding year-end window. Polymarket expressly disregards post-voting annulments; Kalshi does not address them, but the loaded text establishes no opposite settlement.
Tier A — 1 unresolved wording difference
In each case one venue's text is determinate and the other's is unclear or silent. They are shown so nothing is hidden, and they are not counted as divergences.
Effect of a later annulment
Example: KXELECTIRAN — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Iran hold a presidential election?
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jul 1, 2026?
If Iran holds a presidential election before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?
If Iran holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.