Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Treasury announcement requirement”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment” Polymarket: “fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill”
Both cover missed scheduled payments and credit-agency default designations. A missed payment without a Treasury announcement or agency designation could resolve Yes on Polymarket and No on Kalshi.
Tier B — 1 material divergence
Treasury announcement requirement
Example: KXDEFAULT-26DEC31 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
US defaults before 2027?
Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
US defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.