Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier C; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:02 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Executive action without a bill becoming law”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “a bill that eliminates capital gains taxes for at least some digital assets becomes law” Polymarket: “or performs any executive action changing US tax law”
Tier B relies on Kalshi’s sole stored/current rule version (id 202483, unchanged Sep 15–Oct 19): it requires a bill to become law, while Polymarket accepts executive action, so executive-only relief can split outcomes; no earlier Kalshi version appears in the packet. BILL has no death/incapacity-specific clause; its undeterminable-value clause is “If an Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date,” and Rulebook v1.29 7.1 grants the committee “full discretion in resolving the Market Outcome Review Process” while 7.2 permits source/expiration changes, but Polymarket’s source fallback yields no proven YES/NO split.
Tier B — 1 material divergence
Executive action without a bill becoming law
Example: KXCRYPTOCAPGAIN-26 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
If a bill that eliminates capital gains taxes for at least some digital assets becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market. If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market. If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.