Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier A; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:04 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed two divergences: “Nationwide permission to buy Bitcoin without permission to sell” and “Nationwide buy-and-sell permission limited to non-yuan currency”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange” Polymarket: “buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China”
The zone-limited machine scenario is rejected because it fails Kalshi's nationwide condition; distinct nationwide buy-only and non-yuan scenarios still produce confirmed splits. These findings use the COUNTRYACTION terms and criteria id 202196, whose single stored version matches the 2026-10-19 live text.
Tier B — 2 material divergences
Nationwide permission to buy Bitcoin without permission to sell
Nationwide buy-and-sell permission limited to non-yuan currency
The scenario cannot occur as built, or both contracts give the same answer once their text is applied.
Example: KXCHINAUNBANBTC-26JUL08 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will China unban Bitcoin?
Before 2027
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2028?
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029?
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2030?
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.