Tier A — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier C; this review assigned tier A instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:03 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review found no proven divergence between the two contracts. 1 wording ambiguity listed below as caveats.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “because Donald Trump announces he is nominating them for another position instead” Polymarket: “publicly and definitively announce that Todd Blanche's nomination will be or is being withdrawn”
Kalshi explicitly includes replacement or an alternate-position nomination, but the packet does not establish that Polymarket would resolve NO when that announcement definitively replaces Blanche's AG nomination. The proposed split is unresolved wording, so no proven divergence supports tier B or C.
Tier A — 1 unresolved wording difference
In each case one venue's text is determinate and the other's is unclear or silent. They are shown so nothing is hidden, and they are not counted as divergences.
Replacement or alternate-position announcement
Example: KXBLANCHEWITHDRAW-28JAN01 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn?
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn before Aug 5, 2026?
If Todd Blanche is no longer being nominated for Attorney General before Aug 5, 2026, either because they withdrew from consideration, because Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate someone else in their place, or because Donald Trump announces he is nominating them for another position instead, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn before Jan 1, 2027?
If Todd Blanche is no longer being nominated for Attorney General before Jan 1, 2027, either because they withdrew from consideration, because Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate someone else in their place, or because Donald Trump announces he is nominating them for another position instead, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn before Oct 1, 2026?
If Todd Blanche is no longer being nominated for Attorney General before Oct 1, 2026, either because they withdrew from consideration, because Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate someone else in their place, or because Donald Trump announces he is nominating them for another position instead, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Todd Blanche's nomination be withdrawn before Sep 1, 2026?
If Todd Blanche is no longer being nominated for Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026, either because they withdrew from consideration, because Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate someone else in their place, or because Donald Trump announces he is nominating them for another position instead, then the market resolves to Yes.
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Todd Blanche's nomination to be Attorney General of the United States is announced as withdrawn, or is formally withdrawn, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The withdrawal will be considered announced when Donald Trump, Todd Blanche, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Todd Blanche's nomination will be or is being withdrawn. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the withdrawal is formally communicated to the United States Senate, and regardless of whether the withdrawal is described as temporary. The following will not qualify: statements that a withdrawal is being considered or is possible; conditional statements that the nomination will be withdrawn only if specified conditions are met; media reports that a withdrawal is planned; the Senate postponing, declining to advance, or voting down the nomination; the return of the nomination to the President upon adjournment of the Senate; and statements by persons other than those listed above. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Todd Blanche; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.