Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19. A first pass proposed tier A; this review assigned tier B instead.
As of 2026-10-19 23:03 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed two divergences: “Arrest qualification: custody without a listed Polymarket condition” and “Start boundary: Kalshi issuance versus Polymarket market creation”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities” Polymarket: “and at least one of the following is true”
Both confirmed findings use the ARREST terms and criteria id 140729; its single stored latest version matches the 2026-10-19 live text, so both hold on the latest captured version. The Rulebook fallback references do not drive either finding.
Tier B — 1 material divergence, 1 technical edge case
Arrest qualification: custody without a listed Polymarket condition
Start boundary: Kalshi issuance versus Polymarket market creation
Example: KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01 — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026?
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Oct 1, 2026?
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Netanyahu arrested by…?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.