Tier B — AI-reviewed by GPT-6 Luna, evidence as of 2026-10-19.
As of 2026-10-19 23:04 UTC — source: Polyscan AI review, n=1 for this pair
The review confirmed one divergence: “Death-triggered last-fair-price settlement”.
The phrase the review relied on most, one per venue: Kalshi: “all Contracts on <person> shall resolve to the last fair price” Polymarket: “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
EFFECTIVELEAVE’s governing terms say “If <person> leaves <role> due to death” and “all Contracts on <person> shall resolve to the last fair price”; the live market rule says “may resolve,” while Polymarket says “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"”, so death before a qualifying retirement announcement can change settlement. No incapacity-specific override appears; retirement is defined as voluntary, and Rulebook v1.29 has only general review discretion (“The Outcome Review Committee has full discretion in resolving the Market Outcome Review Process”) and an impossibility adjustment (“shall have the power to adjust the Expiration Date and the timing of Expiration”), which add no separate proven difference.
Tier B — 1 material divergence, 1 unresolved wording difference
Death-triggered last-fair-price settlement
In each case one venue's text is determinate and the other's is unclear or silent. They are shown so nothing is hidden, and they are not counted as divergences.
Official communication versus announcement source
The scenario cannot occur as built, or both contracts give the same answer once their text is applied.
Example: KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN — this series recurs; showing the nearest archived instance in our data, not necessarily the exact one reviewed.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027?
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027?
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027?
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028?
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
::
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jan 1, 2027
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jul 1, 2026:: Before Wednesday
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jul 4, 2026:: Before Saturday
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jul 6, 2026:: Before Monday
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
::
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by February 28, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Prices for this series aren't captured yet.